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The annual ritual is a point of local pride even as Eagle Pass draws wide attention for a showdown between Texas Gov. A few hours later, about 200 advocates were in a festive mood in the nearby town of Quemado ahead of a “Take Back Our Border” rally on Saturday. U.S. Border Patrol agents are denied entry. Eagle Pass, with about 30,000 people, has become a major corridor for illegal crossings in recent years, making it a target for Abbott's enforcement. The Biden administration told the Supreme Court that “Texas has effectively prevented Border Patrol from monitoring the border” at Shelby Park.

Persons: Rolando Salinas, Greg Abbott, Biden, ” Salinas, Connie Hinton, Valeria Wheeler, Alejandro Mayorkas, Mayorkas, Del, Jorge Barrera, ” Barrera, Ken Paxton, “, Donald Trump, MAGA, ” Julio Vasquez, Iglesia Luterana, ” Alicia Garcia, Shelby, ”, Garcia, Elliot Spagat, Paul Weber Organizations: PASS, ” Cowboys, San Antonio Stock, Texas Gov, La Cabalgata Internacional, Border, Republican, Democratic White House, Border Patrol, . Homeland, Associated Press, Visitors, of Commerce, ”, Texas National Guard, Supreme, Patrol, Eagle Locations: Texas, Eagle, Piedras Negras, Mexico, United States, La Cabalgata Internacional La Grande, Quemado, Austin , Texas, Virginia, Rio Grande, U.S, Del Rio , Texas, Del Rio, Tucson , Arizona, San Diego, California, Shelby Park, “ Texas, Shelby, Iglesia Luterana San Lucas

☆ Taiwan faces economic uncertainty as tensions with China are set to rise after DPP victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowAmundi warned a possible temporary economic blockade of Taiwan could alarm the markets. Political status quo, economic worriesChina has dismissed the outcome of Taiwan's elections, saying the DPP does not represent the mainstream public opinion. On Jan. 13, Taiwan delivered an unprecedented third presidential term to the ruling DPP's Lai, considered a China skeptic. Loss of legislature to temper DPP stanceThe DPP won the presidency, but it lost its majority in the the Legislative Yuan — Taiwan's parliament. Teneo's Wildau said Beijing was likely to continue refusing official dialogues with the DPP presidential administration, but could pursue conversations with KMT leaders.

Persons: Managment, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Nataxis, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Lai Ching, DPP's Lai, Wildau, Lai, Tsai, Mr Lai's, Yuan —, Yuan, Herrero, Teneo's Wildau Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan, Asia, DPP, Economist Intelligence Unit, KMT, Taiwan People's Party Locations: Taipei, Taiwan, China, Beijing

☆ India is a ‘slow trundling elephant’ but a viable alternative to China, says veteran investor David Roche
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Charmaine Jacob | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Veteran investor David Roche said India "is a slow trundling elephant" that still has many hurdles, but is now a viable alternative to China. "I think India stands to benefit from the decline in terms of the attractiveness of foreign direct investment and portfolio flows of China," Roche told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Friday. After overtaking China to become the world's most populous nation, India could also leapfrog its neighbor to also become the world's second-largest economy by 2075. "So I think we're looking at a transfer of not only fixed investment by corporations, but portfolio investments out of China and into India," Roche said. "I think one has to look to sound the current levels and a note of caution about that," Roche warned.

Persons: David Roche, " Roche, CNBC's, Roche, Alicia Garcia, Herrero Organizations: China, Investors, Economic, CNBC Locations: India, China, Asia, Natixis

☆ China ramps up yuan internationalisation under Belt and Road Initiative
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A China yuan note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. And funding BRI projects has helped China revitalise the once-stalled process of yuan internationalisation. Another policy bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, signed a yuan-based loan agreement with Saudi National Bank, while Bank of China helped Egypt issue Africa's first yuan-denominated Panda bonds. Beijing also allocated an additional 80 billion yuan ($10.94 billion) to its Silk Road Fund for BRI projects. "Can you do this in a targeted way with MOUs with all BRI countries?

Persons: Thomas White, Vladimir Putin, Xi, Alicia Garcia Herrero, China revitalise, Malaysia's Maybank, Haoxin Mu, Natixis, Garcia Herrero, Samuel Shen, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Initiative, Forum, Asia Pacific, Natixis, China International Capital Corp, China Development Bank, BBVA, Export, Import Bank of China, Saudi National Bank, Bank of, Fund, Thomson Locations: China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Beijing, Russia, Asia, U.S, Ukraine, Africa, Europe, Egypt's, BBVA Peru, Bank of China, Egypt

☆ Is India still a bright spot? IMF upgrades growth, but economists say it will be a bumpy ride
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Charmaine Jacob | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Pedestrians walk towards the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus train station at dusk in Mumbai, India, on Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023. The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for India, saying the country's growth will remain strong in 2023 and 2024 — but analysts warn there will be headwinds ahead. According to the IMF's October update of its World Economic Outlook., India's economy will grow 6.3% in 2023, an increase from an earlier forecast of 6.1%. "India will continue to be a bright spot in the global economic picture," Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis said. Consumer spending remains one of the biggest growth drivers in the world's most populous nation, she added.

Persons: Alicia Garcia, Herrero Organizations: Monetary, CNBC, Asia Pacific, Consumer Locations: Shivaji Terminus, Mumbai, India, Natixis

☆ China’s economy will be hobbled for years by the real estate crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Absorbing this “excess capacity” in the property sector will inevitably hurt China’s economic growth, according to Garcia-Herrero. The money from the sales funded their breakneck expansion, making real estate moguls some of the country’s richest people. The strategy largely worked until about three years ago when the Chinese government cracked down on excessive borrowing by the real estate industry because it was worried about the risk of financial instability. But overall, the property sector has contracted severely as it adjusts to a collapse in demand. “A fundamental rewiring of China’s economy will necessitate a focus on developing new industries, improving productivity, and bolstering rental markets,” said analysts from Stanford University and the ASPI.

Persons: ”, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Garcia, they’re, Evergrande, Xu Jiayin, Xi Jinping, ” Mark Williams, Sheana Yue, Zichuan Huang, “, — Michelle Toh Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Investment, Asia Pacific, Getty, Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Regulators, Capital Economics, People’s Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Stanford University, Asia Society Policy Institute, Oxford Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Natixis, Wuhan, China's, Hubei, Japan

The United States imported nearly $127.5 billion in goods from Vietnam in 2022, compared with $101.9 billion in 2021 and $79.6 billion in 2020, according to US government data. The United States needs a trusted partner for its supply of chips, and Vietnam can do just that, Osius said. But that compares favorably with a global growth forecast of 3%, and is noticeably faster many of the world’s major economies, such as the United States, China and the eurozone. Politically, Vietnam shares many similarities to China in that it is an authoritarian one-party state that tolerates little dissent. Vietnam is an obvious choice, because it’s a cheap alternative to manufacturing in China, said García-Herrero.

Persons: Joe Biden, ”, Donald Trump’s, Nguyen Phu Trong, Biden, Antony Blinken, Evan Vucci, ” Ted Osius, Janet Yellen, Michael Every, Alicia García, Osius, chipmaker, Ho, “ We’re, Natixis, ” Osius, “, — CNN’s Kyle Feldscher, Jeremy Diamond, Kevin Liptak Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, America, Apple, Intel, House, Communist Party of, ASEAN Business Council, CNN, United, Atlantic Council, Rabobank, White House, United State, Monetary Fund, “, Netflix, Boeing Locations: Hong Kong, Vietnam, Washington, Hanoi, China, Asia, India, Communist Party of Vietnam, United States, Hanoi Nguyen Huy Kham, United, Beijing, The California, Ho Chi Minh City, Asia underwhelms

"There is a significant risk in the short term of financial crisis or other degree of economic crisis that would carry very substantial social and political costs for the Chinese government. By the time the global financial crisis hit in 2008-09, it had already met most of its investment needs for its level of development, economists say. To keep growth high, China in the 2010s doubled down on infrastructure and property investment, at the expense of household consumption. China has since backed away from major financial market liberalisation while plans to rein in state behemoths and introduce universal social welfare never quite materialised. "But at the same time there's a great fear of the short-term political and social risk, especially of provoking an economic crisis."

Persons: Xi Jinping's, William Hurst, Chong Hua, there's, Max Zenglein, We're, Logan Wright, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hurst, Liangping Gao, Kevin Yao, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Sam Holmes Organizations: Development, University of Cambridge, International Monetary Fund, Asia Pacific, China's, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Japan, Beijing, Natixis

☆ Why China has few good options to boost its faltering economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Fiscal stimulus, for instance, amounted to just a third of the aid offered in the United States, with no nationwide cash handouts. “A comprehensive policy mix — covering monetary and fiscal stimulus, including infrastructure, property, and consumption, alongside structural reforms,” would be helpful to rebuild confidence, they said. It was seen as a success and helped boost Beijing’s domestic and international political standing as well as China’s economic growth, which soared to more than 9% in the second half of 2009. China’s debt woes have only deepened during the Covid-19 pandemic, when three years of draconian restrictions and a real estate downturn drained the coffers of local government. “An infrastructure-led fiscal stimulus would need to be much bigger to have the same economic impact,” she said.

Persons: they’ve, ”, Robert Carnell, Craig Singleton, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, China “, wouldn’t, Zhu Min, Garcia, Xi Jinping, Derek Scissors, Singleton, “ Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, ING Group, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Manufacturers, Asia Pacific, UBS Global Wealth Management, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, American Enterprise Institute Locations: Hong Kong, China, Asia, Pacific, Washington, “, Beijing, United States, China’s, Tianjin

☆ Analysis-China's stubborn savers risk precipitating liquidity trap
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Winni Zhou | Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

“Based on Japan’s experience in the 1990s, there is the risk that China is entering a liquidity trap due to the risks of balance-sheet recession,” said Natixis’s chief economist for Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. Yet about 180 domestic A-share companies say in their stock filings that they have invested in CDs this year. China’s 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil’s population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year. “I wouldn’t pour money into the stock market any time before I see a clear rising trend,” he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, ”, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, “, Byron Gill, ‘, ” Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, ” Wu, John Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo’s Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai

Analysts see the same lack of confidence in today's Chinese households and companies that Japan grappled with in the 1990s. But in China's case there is a key difference; there is no deflationary threat yet, nor have banks switched off lending. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. China's policymakers have cut rates and encouraged banks to lend more in efforts to revive economic growth after the pandemic. China's 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil's population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year.

Persons: Florence Lo, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, Byron Gill, Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, John, Winni Zhou, Rae Wee, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo's, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai, Singapore

"For China, it is 'bad news is good news' at the moment," said Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney. Even before the latest disappointing growth data, a slew of soft economic indicators had shown China's recovery was falling short, slamming the brakes on nascent stock market rallies. Foreign money has been leaving, with worries over China's cyber-security crackdowns and Sino-U.S. flaps over chips and rare metals adding to growth concerns. REVIEWING CHINAGoldman Sachs analysts led by Kinger Lau also believe a 'tactical market recovery' thesis is compelling, and project a 15% 12-month return for the CSI300. "We are conservative about the extent of the policy support down the road," said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist, Asia Pacific at Natixis.

Persons: Jun Bei Liu, Liu, Marcella Chow, CHINA Goldman Sachs, Kinger Lau, it's, Mike Kelly, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Eugenia Victorino, SEB, Victorino, Ting Lu, Jason Xue, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill Organizations: Tribeca Investment Partners, CSI, Morgan Asset Management, CHINA, JPMorgan, PineBridge Investments, Nomura, Thomson Locations: China, Sydney, U.S, Asia, Natixis, Shanghai

☆ Europe will need about 10 years to reduce its rare earth dependency on China, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEurope will need about 10 years to reduce its rare earth dependency on China, says economistAlicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist of Natixis says that Europe will need about 10 years to reduce its rare earth dependency on China.

Persons: Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Natixis Locations: China, Europe

☆ China's domestic travel recovery marred by anti-spending 'special forces'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Casey Hall | Thomson Reuters | Casey Has Reported On China'S Consumer Culture Her Base In Shanghai For More Than A Decade | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Passengers wait to board trains at Shanghai Hongqiao railway station ahead of the five-day Labour Day holiday, in Shanghai, China, April 28, 2023. To get to the ancient temples, pagodas and grottoes she wanted to visit, she walked roughly 30,000 steps a day. "I can control the expenses, to go to many places for the least amount of money, but it is really tiring." "Maybe I didn't wear the right shoes, but my feet started to hurt after walking more than 10,000 steps," she said, joking that she exemplified "the battle-scarred version of special forces travel." ($1 = 6.9121 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Casey Hall and Shanghai newsroom; Editing by Marius Zaharia and Lincoln Feast.

☆ Analysis: China's 'atypical' deflation cycle gives central bank a headache
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China GDP"China is entering an 'atypical' deflation cycle, which means deflation amid economic recovery," said Jinyue Dong, senior economist at BBVA research. China's new bank lending hit an all-time high in the first quarter. The central bank cut lenders' reserve requirements ratio (RRR) for the first time this year in March. But analysts say that is largely due to last year's low base caused by COVID-19 curbs that hit consumers the hardest, rather than underlying household demand. Reuters GraphicsNew household loans, mainly mortgages and consumer loans, accounted for 16% of total new loans in the first quarter, despite a jump in mortgages in March, while corporate loans made up for the rest.

☆ Asian central banks should be relieved U.S. Fed continued to hike interest rates, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAsian central banks should be relieved U.S. Fed continued to hike interest rates, economist saysAlicia Garcia-Herrero of Natixis says it's better for Asia's central banks to know that the U.S. Federal Reserve is "on top of inflation."

As debt obligations mount, some local governments are pushing banks to extend maturities and cut interest rates, sources said. Reuters Graphics"BLACK HOLES""The LGFVs have become the black hole of the Chinese financial system. Chinese banks and other financial institutions have been cautious on new lending to LGFVs over the past years. In recent months, some state-owned banks, asset managers, and insurers have been looking into their portfolios to screen LGFV borrowers with weaker creditworthiness and dispose them, separate financial sector sources told Reuters. Offshore branches of Chinese financial institutions have been major buyers of the bonds, industry sources said.

☆ Adani fallout could have political implications for India in the longer term, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The fallout from the Adani Group turmoil could have political implications for India, said a chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis. While corporate governance issues affect countries globally, what is different about the Adani case for India is that its "highly political," Alicia Garcia Herrero told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday. Indian billionaire founder Gautam Adani has been under scrutiny after allegations in January from U.S. short-seller firm Hindenburg Research that accused the Adani Group of companies of fraud. Adani, India's top industrialist, has since lost his crown as Asia's wealthiest man. However, the long-term political fallout for India remains to be seen, the economist said.

☆ Data shows a collapse of inflows into Asia, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailData shows a collapse of inflows into Asia, economist saysAlicia Garcia-Herrero of Natixis says that's mainly because the U.S. Federal Reserve is more hawkish than expected at the beginning of the year.

☆ Philippine economy will grow more than India's this year, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPhilippine economy will grow more than India's this year, says economistAlicia Garcia-Herrero of Natixis says 2023 will be "rather good" for the Philippines, compared with the rest of the region.

☆ As China seeks to live with the virus, COVID-control industries face decline
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Eduardo Baptista | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Workers in protective suits wait for people at a nucleic acid testing site, as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak continues, in Shanghai, China, December 9, 2022. A day later though, the 43-year-old lost her job as one of the city's many hazmat-suited COVID swab testers. The industries had become big business over the course of the pandemic and are huge employers even if precise statistics are hard to come by. It remains to be seen just how painful China's dismantling of its COVID-control infrastructure will be for companies and their staff. ($1 = 6.9605 Chinese yuan)Reporting by Eduardo Baptista; Editing by Brenda Goh and Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

It marked the slowest growth since May when Shanghai was under lockdown, partly due to disruptions in key manufacturing hubs Guangzhou and Zhengzhou. Retail sales fell 5.9% amid broad-based weakness in the services sector, also the biggest contraction since May. "The weak activity data suggest that the policy needs to be eased further to revive the growth momentum," said Hao Zhou, chief economist at GTJAI. "The increased size of the MLF rollover this morning is in line with the overall easing policy tones. That would hit businesses and consumers, while a weakening global economy hurts Chinese exports.

☆ China's stunning reversal on lockdowns showed that mass protests can influence policy change in the country — but experts say it still doesn't threaten Xi's regime
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-11 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But experts on China say it's unlikely the protests will embolden future political movements. The changes come after protests against COVID measures erupted all across China — rare for a country where dissent is snuffed out quickly. Baogang He, the chair of international relations at Deakin University in Australia, agreed that the protests show how mass anger can influence government policy, but not regime change. "No one is strong enough to exploit or dare to use these protests to mount a challenge to Xi Jinping," Xi, the professor, told Insider. Chong said that although Xi holds extensive power in China, the protests and subsequent rollback both underscore how he can make major mistakes, too.

☆ Hong Kong home prices drop to the lowest in nearly five years — and the worst may not be over
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Prices of Hong Kong's residential properties plunged to a near five-year low as rising interest rates and a mass exodus of expat workers drove down prices in one of the world's most expensive cities to work in. Hong Kong's home price index for October fell 2.4% to 352.4 compared to the previous month, marking the lowest level for the gauge since November 2017. Hong Kong, the world's least affordable housing market, saw dips in some of its largest private housing estates. In YOHO town, a 393-square feet apartment that's currently listed for 5.98 million Hong Kong dollars — that's about HK$15,216 per square foot, and a 20% drop in price compared to the previous month. A confluence of factors including weaker growth predictions and mainland Covid policies contribute to the grim outlook, but Hong Kong's immigration crisis and snowballing interest rates remain salient sticking points.

☆ Analysis: As economy stutters, China's youth seek safety of civil service
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Eduardo Baptista | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The wishes of Lau's parents that she had a "safe" civil service career suddenly made more sense. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, says the preference for civil servant jobs has surged. On social media, young Chinese refer to the civil service as "the end of the universe," meaning the safest place around in such an environment. "Being a civil servant gives you a lot of stability," she said. “The present state of the job market has definitely increased my desire to become a civil servant," she said.

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